The future of the European Union in crisis,The EU is in serious trouble

The future of the European Union in crisis

“The EU is in serious trouble.”

This was the result of the media reports from major member countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany after the EU summit in Brussels, the capital of Belgium, ended in mid-June. The meeting was called after France at the end of May when the ratification of the EU Constitution (the EU Constitution) was rejected in the referendum of the Netherlands. Is the birth of the EU Constitution so frustrated? If so, what is the future of the EU? Perhaps the answer to that question is why the talks, which have been held for over 50 hours, have failed.

The main agendas of the summit were countermeasures against successive constitutional affiliations by member countries, agreement on the EU's mid-term (2007-2013) budget, and discussions on whether to join Turkey. The talks ended, however, without much discussion on the rest of the agenda, as France and the United Kingdom had long been on the mid-term budget.

The friction between France and England is foreseen. France has been the driving force behind European integration with Germany for over 50 years. However, as a result of the referendum in May, 54% of the people voted against the European Constitution. The shock was great. Strictly speaking, the results of the voting are more true that the French people expressed their dissatisfaction with President Jacques Chirac than they rejected the EU Constitution.

It is not easy for the general public to understand the content of the EU Constitution. However, it is the people who feel the economic aftermath immediately.

The French economy is on the verge of deterioration. Public sector strikes have followed over the past few months. However, France cannot adjust interest rates, which is one of the policy measures to promote economic growth. This is because the euro is the single currency of Europe. The interest rates of the twelve member countries currently joining the euro are determined by the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Germany.

It was also negative that some criticism that the EU Constitution reflected an excessively market-oriented'Anglo-Saxon' economic model. France's foreign policy stance is de Gaulle, which is the only superpower in the United States to check the United States. However, the fact that the EU Constitution follows the US or British model, which is the subject of check, rather than the French economic model that values   the tradition of national intervention, is a complete reversal of foreign policy stance.

In order to dispel this critical view ahead of the referendum, President Chirac emphasized that the Constitution reflected the French economic model by appearing on television several times. But it did not already persuaded the people turned the contrary.

In the end, President Chirac used one of the main agendas of the EU summit as a tool to overcome the domestic political crisis. The EU's mid-term budget was first proposed by Executive Chairman Jacques DeLorre in 1988, and major budget items such as rescue funds and labor costs for joint agricultural policies and underdeveloped areas for 5 to 7 years are settled over the years to resolve the controversy surrounding member budgets. The budget ceiling for the government has been set in advance to be approved at the summit of member countries. This will help you keep track of your EU budget for years.

The British willingness to do so was determined. The UK has been unable to discuss the issue of refunds unless it cuts spending on joint agricultural policy, which currently accounts for 42% of the EU's budget, and increases the budget needed to save the economy, such as R&D and regional development.

It is an unacceptable proposal for President Chirac. Not only is France the biggest beneficiary of the joint agricultural policy, but the presidential election is scheduled for 2007. If President Chirac yields, it is clear that his party candidate will lose the vote of the peasant. Even without elections, it is against the sentiments of the French people, who regard the collective agricultural policy as the most proud achievement of the European Union.

Luxembourg's Prime Minister Jean-Claude Junker, who served as the chairman of the EU's circuit, delayed the talks until dawn and tried to reach an agreement between the two countries, but failed. The two countries have not made any concessions. When France criticized the British for "lack of solidarity," the British accused "French uses tactics to blur the nature of the problem after the constitution was rejected."

The UK's budget refund, which emerged as the biggest issue between the two countries, amounted to 4.6 billion euros (5,500 trillion won) per year, which is an important variable in organizing the EU mid-term budget. Because of this, the talks ended with no conclusions on the EU mid-term budget for 2007-2013.

The agreement on the EU's mid-term budget is an urgent issue. As the Central and Eastern European countries joined as members, there were more places to enforce the budget. Here, Germany, Europe's largest economic power, suffers from unemployment, which is close to 12%, and France is in a mood to reduce the budget that many member countries pay to the EU. Hurry up to reach a mid-term budget to stop this move.

The European Union's fiscal year is one year from April 1st of each year. Therefore, no matter how late, if the mid-term budget agreement is not reached by early next year, the EU will have to operate abnormally. But the prospect is not very bright.

Sticky German-

English relations The United Kingdom is the EU's second round of circuit travel. Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair announced at the European Parliament at the end of June that the chairman's main agenda was to be addressed and that "the EU needs leadership." 

Germany's behavior is very important to the mid-term budget. Germany is currently the country with the largest budget for the EU. However, in recent years, the voice of the EU to reduce the budget due to poor economic conditions is increasing. We agree with the UK that we need to use the EU budget effectively. However, it is not easy for Germany to press France with the British.

France and Germany have had strong ties since the end of World War II, playing a pivotal role in European integration. Germany, with the help of France, actively participated in European integration to regain sovereignty and emerged as a reliable country on the international stage. Through Europe, the remnants of the Nazis were washed and reborn into a new country. France, on the other hand, could control Germany's potential threats in the framework of European integration, and play a pivotal role in the integration process, making up for the prestige of the country that lost its colonies and fell into the middle.

As the Cold War era came to an end in the early 1990s, the prospect that Germany and France's strong alliance in the Cold War would be relaxed and collapsed was dominant, but not yet. Rather, in 2003, as Prime Minister Schröder opposed the US invasion of Iraq, the alliance with France, which was at the forefront of the anti-American front, was strengthened.

Meanwhile, when the EU constitution was rejected in France and the Netherlands, the British "reserved time to think" and suspended the referendum. Although some countries have criticized this, it can be said that it is a decision based on the real perception of England.

In France, a presidential election will take place in 2007, but there is no possibility that an already-in-progress President Chirac will run. It is unlikely that the constitution once rejected by the people will be referred to the referendum again unless the public opinion changes. Therefore, it is safe to say that the EU Constitution has already been killed in France.

Indeed, in the case of the new EU Minister of Foreign Affairs, member countries can fully reach agreement through existing bodies such as the Ministerial Council. The internationally renowned Javier Solana, who served as the Secretary-General of NATO, is now in charge of the EU's Joint Foreign Security Policy. Each Member State is also well aware that the EU, the world's largest economic block, needs to speak out in order to exercise its political power on the international stage. Each member country can send diplomats to Solana's office as needed to better coordinate their foreign policy and EU foreign policy. Although there is no title of the EU Foreign Minister, this can be done as long as the agreement between the member states is reached.

It is also possible to integrate and operate representatives currently sent by the European Commission to countries around the world. Even if the constitution is rejected, this can be done once the existing Cabinet Council has agreed.

Since the establishment of the Coal and Steel Community in 1952, the EU has been on the path of integration for over 50 years. It is not an exaggeration to say that through integration, all companies have overcome the crisis, and through this, integration has progressed further.

At the end of June 1965, France was not sent to the European Community for six months. France's unfavorable direction was discussed in discussing the budget for the joint agricultural policy. The situation at that time was called the'Empty Chair Crisis', because French ministers did not participate in the Ministerial Council. Afterwards, crises in the 1970s and 1980s frequently occurred.

However, the EU has overcome this. The crisis caused by the frustration of the constitution can also be overcome through consensus among major member countries. What matters is more than the willingness and amount of member states that are aware of the crisis to reach an agreement. It remains to be seen what leadership the UK, which will serve as the chairman of the second half of this year, will do.